Following an embarrassing loss to the Browns last week, this Sunday, the Miami Dolphins (0-3) head west to take on the Chargers (2-1) for a 4pm start.  Both, the Dolphins and Chargers, are coming off poor performances against below par teams.  The Chargers had decent numbers last week, but committed too many mistakes that let the lowly Chiefs hang around.  The Dolphins, similarly, had the lead for the majority of the game, but, unlike the Chargers, could not seal the deal.  I have seen comparisons of these teams that say they are very similar, but will that make for a close game? Let’s see…

What to Watch For:

Chargers’ Offense vs. Dolphin Defense:

When examining the Chargers’ offense it’s easy to figure out where to start: Pro-Bowl QB Phillip Rivers.  Last week, Rivers threw for 258 yards on 24 completions and had 2 INTs.  I’m going to chalk up that performance to him having a bad day, considering Rivers has thrown for the 4^th most yards (979) this season.  The matchup of Rivers against the Miami Dolphin defense is scary at best for Dolphin fans.  It’s no secret the Dolphins’ secondary has more than struggled this season and I do not foresee that changing this week as CB Vontae Davis did not make the trip with the team.  If the Dolphins’ 30^th ranked pass fails to right the ship without Davis, Rivers may drop Brady type numbers on Sunday.

The Chargers’ offense relies heavily on their passing attack; having attempted 126 passes to 81 rushes in 2011.  Despite their reliance on Rivers, the Chargers’ backfield will feature two RBs: Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert.  Both backs have combined for 271 rushing yards in 2011, but their main contributions come in the passing game.  Together, the two backs have accounted for 34 receptions for 341 yards and 2 TDs.  These two may play a larger role this Sunday as, future Hall of Famer, TE Antonio Gates’ status looks bleak.  This is very good news for the Dolphins as it takes away one of Rivers’ favorite targets and Gates is a TE (whom the Dolphins simply cannot cover no matter the quality).  This is a big loss for the Chargers, but definitely not a fatal one.  Rivers’ will still have quality targets in Malcom Floyd, Vincent Jackson, and his RBs.

Dolphin Offense vs. Chargers’ Defense:

The Chargers come into Sunday with a solid defense to backup their equally solid offense.  The Charger have the 9^th ranked passing defense, 19^th ranked rushing defense, and the 8th ranked defense overall.  You might think their 19^th ranked rush defense would be the point of attack for the Dolphins given how well Daniel Thomas has played the previous two weeks right?  I thought so too, but that idea went out the window once reports came in that Thomas did not make the trip with the team due to his ailing hamstring. Great.  This might be the explanation for the Dolphins acquisition of RB Steve Slaton.  Hopefully Slaton will have picked up enough of the Dolphins’ playbook to possibly take advantage of this Charger weakness. Oh, maybe Bush will give it a shot?

As I said in my Week 3 Wrap-up, I felt that Henne had another good week.  There had been rumors following last week’s game that the Dolphins were looking into trading for Carson Palmer.  I do not think that this is a good move or the answer for this team’s problems.  Henne has been playing better and Palmer wouldn’t make that much of a difference.  Until he would learn the offense the season would be over (at least our chances of making the playoffs), you’re not building your franchise around him because of his age, and you’re giving up valuable draft picks.  That being said, it’s time for Henne to stop “not losing games” and start winning them.  As I said, he has been playing better, but the redzone struggles are no longer acceptable.  The Dolphins’ offense has shown they can drive the ball, but now it is time to finish those drives.  For this to happen, the line has to play good (not even great, just good), then Henne and the receiving core have to get on the same page, and they have to change up the play calling.  As will be the case every week, if the Dolphins fail to put the ball in the endzone, then they will have NO shot at winning this one.

Two Minute Drill:

Dolphins’ Key to the Game: Damn the Rivers.  If the Dolphins allow Phillip Rivers to get into a groove, then it’s going to be a long, painful day for Miami fans.  The Chiefs were able to force Rivers into making mistakes.  The Dolphins must do the same if they want to remain in this game.

Chargers’ Key to the Game: Safe and Sound.  The Chargers do not need to be flashy in this matchup to be successful.  The Dolphins’ secondary can be picked apart with basic passing plays; especially with a QB the caliber of Phillip Rivers.  To win this game the Chargers do not need to hit big plays, but rather hit short passes and keep the ball safe.

Dolphins’ Player to Watch: The Defensive Line.  I usually save the “Player to Watch” for someone I think will have a big game, but this week it’s the players that NEED to have a big game.  I have pretty much given up on the secondary’s ability to stop the pass, so this leaves the task of stopping Rivers to the D-line.  The D-line needs to finally come alive and get to Rivers consistently to break up his rhythm.

Chargers’ Player to Watch: Phillip Rivers.  No shocker here.  If Rivers can have a solid day with minimal mistakes, then the Chargers will find themselves in position to get the W.

How it plays out:  After looking at the numbers, I do believe these two teams do matchup better than I originally thought.  Despite this, Phillip Rivers is still Phillip Rivers and the Dolphins’ secondary is the Dolphins’ secondary.

Prediction: 27-17 Chargers. Rivers and the Chargers’ offense control this game.  They do not make many mistakes and put the ball in the endzone.  Henne and the Dolphins offense do not.  Failed opportunities and poor defense continue to plague the Dolphins.

If my prediction holds up, I hope it doesn’t, the Dolphins will drop to (0-4) entering their bye week.  One has to wonder if Tony Sparano can survive another loss.  Something will have to be done, but what can be done and will it honestly make a difference?

As  always, PhinsUp!                                                                                                                                                                                 -John

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @PhinNationJohn for additional Dolphin news and commentary.

Thank you for reading my article, I hope you enjoyed it and be sure to leave a comment.

Is the Miami Dolphins’ 1pm game this Sunday at 1-1 Cleveland a must win?  It depends on who you’re asking about? Chad Henne? Tony Sparano? The Miami Dolphins’ 2011 season?  What happens to them if we lose?  Before we can get into those discussions, we have to actually play the game.

What to expect:

Brown’s  Offense vs. Dolphin Defense:

In their first two games, the Browns, have recorded a loss to the surprising Bengals and a win last week against the Colts.  In these two games, based on the numbers, their offense has performed poorly.  The Brown’s offense is ranked 25^th in passing, 21^st in rushing, and 26^th in total offense (and this is against the Bengals and Colts…ouch).  On the other hand, from the little I have seen of them, the Browns’ offense hasn’t looked as bad as the numbers make them out to be.  Regardless of how bad the Browns’ numbers are, with the way the Dolphins D has played, we have no room to take them for granted.

I have read that the Dolphins may be adapting the strategy of “stop Hillis and let Colt McCoy beat us.”  This would be a mistake in my book for a few reasons.  Now, don’t get me wrong, Hillis is an extremely good running back that will have a major say in the outcome of the game, but stopping the pass needs to be the Dolphins’ concern.  Until the Dolphins show they can stop their opponents passing consistently, it needs to be their main concern.  In his first two games, McCoy averaged 200 yards/game, threw 3 TDs, and 1 Int.  By no stretch are these stats outstanding, but McCoy jumped up 30 QB rating points from week 1 to week 2.  Combine McCoy’s performance with the Dolphins 30^th ranked pass defense that is focused on Hillis and it may result in a good opportunity for McCoy to have a break-out performance.  Another reason to focus on the pass is Vontae Davis was just listed as being out for Sunday, oh boy.  I piece of good news for the Dolphins’ D is, as I am writing this, I have see that Hillis has missed practice on Friday due to an illness and is listed as questionable.  I do not wish illness or injury on anyone, but the Browns not having Hillis would be of great benefit to the Dolphins.  Although, I have to believe that it will not hold him out on Sunday, but, in what would be a new one, it could be the start of the dreaded MADDEN CURSE dun dun dun.

Dolphin Offense vs. Browns Defense:

The numbers have the Miami Dolphins’ offense listed as 9^th in passing, 8^th in rushing, 10^th in total offense.  Yes, that look of disbelief on your face was the same I had when I saw it too.  I thought about why this was so shocking, but it’s semi-believable when you think about it: Henne had a huge game week against NE and the Dolphins have back-to-back 100 yard rushing games.  Where our disbelief really comes from is our inability to put the ball in the endzone, as the Dolphins are ranked 25^th in points scored.  The Dolphins have struggled finishing drives for the past several years and cashing in on our opportunities has to happen this week.

Henne came back to earth last week after his game against the Pats.  He does not need to do what he did against the Pats each week, but he does need to be better than he was last week.  At times he was making the right decisions and hitting his receivers, other times he was inaccurate and rushed.  It seems that Henne’s performance all depends on his momentum; when he’s going, he’s real good, but when he’s bad, he’s real bad.  This puts the emphasis on the performance of the O-line.  They have been really weak in pass blocking and need to keep Henne clean to allow him time to make reads and get into a flow.  This may be especially important considering the Browns have the 2^nd rated pass defense; take that with a grain of a salt (remember they played the Bengals and Colts).  What I am most excited to see on Sunday is if Daniel Thomas is for real and, if he is, can the Dolphins find a way to mix-up their attacking using Thomas, Bush, and the Receiving core.  The Dolphins have a lot of quality weapons and they just need to figure-out how to use them all; especially in the redzone.

Two Minute Drill:

Dolphins’ Key to the Game: Get off the field (with points).  I feel the key(s) to the Dolphins’ success will come in two areas on Sunday.  The first is to get the defense off the field.  Too often the defense will allow their opponent extend their drive on 3^rd down.  They need to tighten up and realize they are one play away from getting the ball back.  Secondly, the Dolphins need to put the ball in the endzone. No more settling for field goals, it should simply be unacceptable when in the redzone.

Browns’ Key to the Game: Arrive Early.  In other words, come out with a stop and a score (or the other way around depending on the coin toss).  Either way, if you can get up on this Dolphins team, it is very hard for them to overcome that adversity and build momentum.  I don’t think the Browns can lose this game in the first quarter, but they may be able to win it.

Dolphins’ Player to Watch: Daniel Thomas.  The Browns have the 24^th ranked rush defense (against C. Benson & J. Addai; not exactly elite RBs).  It could be a good time to get Thomas going early and open up the Browns secondary for Henne.  I just hope the Dolphins don’t become one dimensional if Thomas is successful.

Browns’ Player to Watch: Peyton Hillis. Hillis had 94 yards & 2 TDs in a win and 57 yards & 0 TDs in a loss. Enough said.

How it plays out: This one remains close until the end, as do all Dolphin games.  The Dolphins will get the running game going and Henne will play better, but not great.  The Dolphins D continues to fail to get off the field, but plays good enough to give the offense a chance.

Prediction: 24-17 Dolphins. The offense plays well against the unchallenged Browns defense and figures out how to put the ball in the endzone.  The defense continues to bend, but not break well enough.  Plus it’s an away game.

Back to the question: Is this a must win?  For Chad Henne, if he plays poorly, throw picks, and the Dolphins lose, then yes.  Henne cannot lose this game for the Dolphins and still be the starter.  Fortunately for him, I do not foresee him being the reason for losing this game.  For Tony Sparano, you better believe it.  He is already on the hot seat and if he loses this one, he may be gone by the Dolphins bye week.  For the Dolphins season, no, because I don’t think we will overcome the Jets and Pats with or without this game.  In reality, this game may not really be a must win in these situations, but there is one situation that it is an absolute must win.  This game is a must win for the Miami Dolphin fans.  If the Dolphins lose this game, Dolphin fans will be calling for the head of the entire organization.  Attendance will get even uglier and no sponsor will be able to buy enough tickets to compensate for the missing disgusted fans.  So, yes, this IS a must win for the Dolphins to keep the fans and their dignity.

PhinsUp!                                                                                                                                                                                                    -John

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @PhinNationJohn for additional Dolphin news and commentary.

Thank you for reading my article, I hope you enjoyed it and be sure to leave a comment.

If you would have bet me, that in week one, Chad Henne would go 30 for 49 for 416 yds and 3 touchdowns, while the Miami Dolphins’ defense would give up 600+ total yards, I would have bet my house against you and would be homeless right now.  Coming into the new season, I had questions that the Dolphins needed to answer to be successful.  Would Henne continue his preseason “success?” Would the Dolphins running game exist at all? Would the Dolphins’ CB tandem live up to Vontae Davis’ declaration that they are the best in the NFL?  Some questions were answered, but many more new questions emerged.  This Sunday the Dolphins will match-up with the 1-0 Houston Texans at 4:15pm in Sun Life Stadium and will look to find some answers.

What to expect:

Texan Offense vs. Dolphin Defense:

Trying to predict how this weekend’s match-up will play out based on week one provides a bit of a challenge.  In week one, the Houston Texans blew-out a Manning-less Colts team 34-7.  It should be interesting to see what strategy the Texans offense uses against the Dolphins.  You would think the smart money would be just let Schaub, Johnson, and the rest of the receiving core to go nuts, right?  On the other hand, the Texans ran the ball 41 times for 167 yds (4.1 y/c) on Sunday while only airing it out 24 times.  Just running out the clock you say?  On the contrary, of their 36 first half plays, 21 of them were rushing plays.  Which brings me back to the question, after seeing Brady dissect the Dolphins’ secondary, do they come out throwing the ball all over the field or stick with their successful running game, which “Oh by the way” did not have Arian Foster (who looks to play on Sunday)?

Either way, the defense needs to show up if the Dolphins are going to have shot at winning this game.  Obviously, most of the blame has to be placed on the secondary for last week’s performance.  They were beat all night and, at times, they seemingly just did not know their responsibilities.  You have to believe that solidifying coverages had to be the main focus during practice and though they may struggle again this week, I don’t see them giving up another 500 passing yards again this week.  Maybe the return of Will Allen will provide them with some stability and leadership they need.  The secondary could also use the help of the LBs and pass rushers that seemingly could not cover any TE and only got to Brady for one sack.  When they were able to at least get pressure is when we saw Brady’s incompletions.  Overall, this defense needs to right the ship, I just don’t know if this is the best team to do it against.

Dolphin Offense vs. Texan Defense:

The Dolphin offense led by Chad Henne was nothing less than shocking.  The opening drive that went for 84 yds, lasted 7+ mins and most importantly resulted in a TD left me speechless and wondering what team I was watching.  Maybe it was the opening night hype, maybe it was the Monday Night Football effect, maybe it was the Pats, MAYBE the offense can actually be that good, but whatever it was that made them look that good, it needs to happen more often.   As the game went on, the offense did come back down to earth a bit, but I was still impressed.  Henne looked sharp for most of the night.  I have a feeling his new freedom to change the play at the line has really helped his confidence.  One of my initial concerns was about the Dolphins ability to run and while Bush only went for 38 yds, it was over 11 carries for an average of 3.5 y/c.  Several of his rushes were between the tackles and honestly Bush looked strong.  By the end of the game he was worn (umm where was LJ on short yardage situations??), but we should have Clay and Thomas back this week; which will keep Bush fresh.  The line did let Henne get tagged 4 times and Incognito was anything but, as he racked up far too many penalty yards.  Fortunately these mistakes should be correctable and despite getting beat (by a great interior d-line) Mike Pouncy looked good in his debut.

It’s hard to judge the Texans’ defensive performance against the Colts who realistically were missing their entire offense with Manning.  As is usually the case, we will go as our O-line goes this week.  If they can improve, open up running lanes, and keep Henne’s jersey clean against a Texan D that recorded 3 sacks against the Colts, then we should be able to continue our success.  I would LOVE to see the Dolphins come out throwing on first down like they did during the first drive.  Teams are used to us being a run first offense and by spreading the field with our weapons, our running game will only benefit.  Driving the field was not a concern against the Pats, but we still do not know how to put the ball in the endzone.  It’s almost like we get conservative in the redzone, trying not to make a mistake rather than punching it in (what happened to the play-action pass?).  You can’t win games kicking field goals, especially against a high powered Texans offense.

Two Minute Drill:

Dolphins’ Key to the Game: Obvious one here. Defense, defense, DEFENSE.  The only way the Dolphins will have a chance in this game is if the D rebounds from its dreadful performance against the Pats.  If we can turn Schaub’s jersey green and contain their running game, then the DBs should have an easier time covering their responsibilities. Oh yea one more thing, DRINK SOME GATORADE, PICKLE JUICE, PEDIALITE, AND/OR RUN WITH AN IV IN!

Texans’ Key to the Game: Weaknesses & Turnovers.  That is, take advantage of the Dolphins’ weaknesses and don’t commit the turnovers.  If the Dolphins do not fix their glaring coverage problems, then the Texans should be able to hit the big play to Andre Johnson all day.   On the other hand, they gave away 3 turnovers (2 ints and a fumble) to a less then respected Colts defense.  If they are able to accomplish these points, then it may be a long day for the Phins.

Dolphins’ Player to Watch: Cameron Wake. Struggled against a rookie in week one.  If he can’t get going, Schaub may pick apart the secondary.

Texan’s Player to Watch: Jacoby Jones. I feel the Texans will come out firing and the Dolphins will be keying on Andre Johnson (atleast they should be) These should leave Jones in favorable (for him) one-on-one coverage.

How it plays out: The Dolphins have never beat the Texans, but this week…will be no different.   I have to believe the defense will play better, but will not handle the Texans receiving core AND their rushing game; which is good with or without Arian Foster.  The Dolphins offense will continue to grow and Henne will have another good day, but can’t win the shoot-out. It will be close and we should have a chance to win.

Prediction: 27-24 Texans. Could go either way and I hope I’m wrong, but Texans win the shoot-out.

PhinsUp!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -John

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @PhinNationJohn for additional Dolphin news and commentary.

Thank you for reading my first article for PhinNation.com, I hope you enjoyed it and be sure to leave a comment.