Breaking down the odds of the Dolphins drafting Pro Bowlers in the NFL Draft

 

By Cyrus (@Cyruslassus on Twitter)

I visited my local fair yesterday and was lured in by the chance of coming away with a big prize for a small price in their carnival games.

I came away feeling scammed and it reminded me of the NFL Draft.

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

I did a numbers analysis of the past five drafts and discovered that 80 Pro Bowlers were selected out of 1272 selections, for a 6.3 percent early success rate.

15 were selected in the 2009 draft, 30 in 2010, 20 in 2011, 11 in 2012 and 4 in 2013.

Obviously, the last two drafts have not had as much time to develop and more Pro Bowlers are surely to sprout, but they have been included as they give a realistic picture of what this Dolphins regime can expect in their win or go home season.

The first round produced 44 of the 80 Pro Bowlers, or 55 percent.

2011 first rounder Mike Pouncey is the lone Dolphin pick to make the Pro Bowl.

Dion Jordan, Ryan Tannehill, Jared Odrick and Vontae Davis have failed to reach that height thus far.

The 20 percent first round success, while disappointing, is not far below the league wide 27.5 percent average.

The first round is the sweet spot in the draft, but the second half of the first round, where the Dolphins pick this season, has a 16.3 percent ratio.

After that, only 3.2 percent of round 2 through round 7 picks have become Pro Bowlers.  0 percent if you are the Dolphins, although Mike Wallace, a Steeler 3rd round pick in 2009, is on the roster.

The average NFL team has drafted 2.5 Pro Bowlers in these five seasons, while the Dolphins have drafted 1.

With these numbers in hand, signing Jimmy Graham becomes a priority.

He would be expensive and the Saints would be entitled to two first round picks from Miami if they decided not to match, but the money would be well spent and the team would be giving up two late first rounders that are 83.7 percent likely not to yield an instant star in this league.

The team will have to study each and every player individually, but I break down the Pro Bowl percentages for all of the different positions to see where you are most and least likely to bust.

It turns out that offensive line is a very risky proposition.

Centers provide the highest value with 14.3 percent becoming Pro Bowlers, but the Dolphins are set at the position.   (cont’d on page 2, CLICK HERE)

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