Breaking down the odds of the Dolphins drafting Pro Bowlers in the NFL Draft
The Dolphins are in the market for tackles and guards and only 4.9 percent of tackles and 4.3 percent of guards have become Pro Bowl talents so far.
Quarterbacks, with 10.2 percent making the Pro Bowl, have been the safest investment out of all positions if you exclude kicker and center due to their small sample sizes.
By comparison, running backs are at 7.1 percent, wide receivers are at 7.2 percent (almost half made it as a kick returner) and tight ends are at 8.9 percent.
On the defensive side of the ball, Pro Bowl defensive ends are selected 7.6 percent of the time, defensive tackles are hitting at 4.8 percent, linebackers at 4.9 percent, cornerbacks at 3.0 percent and safeties at 8.3 percent.
Admittedly, these numbers will go up as the seasons go on, but these cold hard facts should help temper the expectations for the 2014 draft.
So, generally speaking you want to avoid guards, tackles, wide receivers, defensive tackles, linebackers and cornerbacks.
I would rather avoid the draft altogether unless a specific prospect caught my attention and, even then, it would be best that he earns his roster spot and playing time.
It would be amazing if the team found a star linebacker, running back, offensive tackle, offensive guard, wide receiver and tight end, but barring a miracle, they will be lucky to stumble upon one.
If the team is serious about winning now, they have to acquire talent via free agency and trades.
The team has $19 million in cap space and can create more.
The draft is how teams dilute themselves into believing they have a solid plan.
The Seattle Seahawks are an exception to the rule, with their 6 Pro Bowlers in 5 drafts.
Focus on the 93.7 percent that have not made the Pro Bowl for all 32 teams and you will see little reason to even watch the three day event.
Last year was ruined, more than anything, by replacing Jake Long and Reggie Bush with second year players Jonathan Martin and Lamar Miller.
This team needs more Pro Bowlers, not more youth.
Travelle Wharton at guard, Maurice Jones Drew at running back and Dimitri Patterson at cornerback are more likely to be on top of their game this season than a rookie.
For this season, the idea is pretty simple.
Pay the price for production and pull out of the projection party.