Here’s what the Dolphins should do in the 2019 NFL Draft
Draft Day is FINALLY upon us! The Miami Dolphins hold the #13 pick in the 1st round and have 6 other picks in the 2019 Draft. Unfortunately, the Dolphins have a lot more holes than those picks can fill. This is why many (myself included), think the Dolphins will look to trade down in the first round.
If the Dolphins see a player at pick #13 (i.e. an elite right tackle or defensive lineman), they could take that player and look to trade down on day 2 (rounds 2 and 3 of the draft). I’d say the odds of this happening are pretty low, let’s say in the 25-30% range.
That means there is a very high chance, the Dolphins will trade down. “But, but, you have to have a trade partner to trade down!”. That’s very true. BUT, the Dolphins are so desperate for draft picks, they’ll likely take a less than even trade, in order to acquire more picks, even accepting picks in the 2020 draft, as they set their sights on a QB next year.
I believe, like many others, that the Dolphins aren’t sold on any QBs in this draft, except for Kyler Murray. And since he’s unlikely to be available or within trade-up range for the Dolphins, they’ll look to the 2020 draft to find their future franchise QB. That means they’ll need to stockpile picks in the 2020 draft.
The draft is unpredictable, of course, so setting up a draft strategy is difficult. However, if the Dolphins head into the draft with the goal of picking up 3 starters AND gaining picks in next year’s draft, it would be a solid plan. So what would this look like? The key is trading down from #13.
Trade-Down Scenario 1
If the Dolphins traded down into the late 1st round with a team like the Falcons or Seahawks (who would trade up for a high-impact defensive lineman/edge rusher), the Dolphins could net a 1st round pick in the 2020 draft. They’d still have a 1st round pick this year and would have a huge asset for next year’s draft. The Packers pulled off a similar trade last year with the Saints.
When their new pick is up late in the 1st round, the Dolphins could see who’s still on the board and select that player (i.e. Jeffery Simmons, Dalton Risner, etc) OR they could look to trade down (perhaps to a team looking to trade back into the 1st round for a player, maybe even a QB). This might allows the Dolphins to pick up additional assets in this draft (maybe end up with 2 x 2nd’s and 2 x 3rd’s). Thankfully, this is a relatively deep draft for the positions the Dolphins are said to be focusing on (defensive line, offensive line, secondary help).
Trade-Down Scenario 2
As an alternative option, the Dolphins could look to trade down a few times in the first round. Perhaps they trade down with the Giants, who are looking for a QB with pick 17, but want to jump ahead of the Redskins at 15. Moving down 3 picks could add a 3rd round pick this year or maybe even a 2nd round pick next year. Remember, picks in next year’s draft are less valuable than picks in this year’s draft (i.e. 2019 3rd round pick = 2020 2nd round pick).
From there, the Dolphins could look to move down again from 17 to the late 20’s. This could net them another 2nd or 3rd rounder, while keeping a pick in the 1st round.
The key for the trade-down scenarios are twofold. First, the board has to fall so that a team gets antsy and wants to jump up to grab a particular player. Maybe there’s a run on offensive tackles and the Texans want to jump up to get the last tackle they have graded as ‘elite’. Second, the Dolphins have to be flexible on compensation. I’m not suggesting they get ripped off. But, even if a trade doesn’t fit the supposed trade value chart, it still might be worth considering.
Whatever happens, it’ll make for some exciting television to watch. Can’t wait to see how it all plays out!
If you haven’t checked it out, click here to see our initial post about Operation Phinvasion!
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