Pro-activeness the key to Dolphins success
Miami should be able to emulate what New Orleans did to them when they pulled out to an early 7-0 lead and then picked off and then returned an ill advised pass near midfield down 21-10, ran out the remaining 55 seconds and started the second half with a three and out. The next time they received the ball, the margin was 18. This is the type of momentum Miami can create for itself against the Bills this Sunday by scoring first and forcing the visitor to play from behind in a hostile environment.
It begins with the coin toss, which they should elect to receive if given a chance. Miami has elected to kick off in every game in which they have won the coin toss, which reinforces a “keep the game close and win it in the fourth quarter” attitude that has contributed to zero playoff wins since 2001.
An offense is most comfortable when they have possession with the lead or a tie score, which is why Plan A in a football game should always be to score first.
According to Brian Burke’s Win Probability chart, an NFL team only has a 25% chance of winning when they have the ball and a seven point deficit early in the first quarter.
The chart, which is based on NFL games from 2000-2007, found that being down a touchdown and having possession gives you as low as a 10-15% win percentage late in the game and never a higher than 35% chance of winning. Teams with a seven point lead win 70% or more of all games, no matter at which point in the game the feat is achieved.
I believe that the New Orleans Saints are a much better team when Sean Payton is in charge of the team and its offense because his nature is to be proactive. During Super Bowl XLIV in Miami, his team won the coin toss and he elected to receive. They were held to a three and out and were down four points heading into the second half when he decided to go for the onside kick that changed the course of that game. He was proactive at the start of both halves and has a Super Bowl ring to show for it.
While there are many heroes in any football game, it was his understanding of the dynamic between clock and score that made the difference. If you extrapolate from to the probability chart, the Colts chances of winning were in the vicinity of the 69-75% if Peyton Manning had gotten the ball back in the second half with a four point lead. The onside kick that led to a recovery and a quick touchdown which promptly changed the statistical probability for a Colts win to slightly above 40%.
I believe that the Miami Dolphins could beat anybody, anywhere, if Joe Philbin channels his inner Sean Payton. His team has some major issues to work through which make me doubt that they will reach an elite level of proficiency, but by being proactive at key moments and maintaining their elite adaptive capabilities, they could find themselves in serious Super Bowl contention. – Cyrus (@cyruslassus on Twitter)