‘Super’ Pitiful Pick: Who will win Super Bowl 48?
When analyzing this game and coming up with my pitiful pick (which is sure to be wrong), I looked further into the rankings on the weaker side of the ball for both teams. The Broncos defense ranked 7th against the run (ironically, tied with the Seahawks D) and 27th against the pass. Now, the Broncos pass defense numbers are skewed a bit because they were leading by large margins in most games, so teams abandoned the run (a la Mike Sherman in close games) and threw the ball.
The Seahawks offense ranked 4th in the NFL in rushing and 26th in passing. So the ‘weakness’ versus weakness comes when the Seahawks are throwing the ball. Can Russell Wilson make the plays with his arm against the Denver defense? That’s the part of this game that isn’t being talked about. We know Marshawn Lynch will get his yards, he’s a Skittles eating monster. But if I’m the Broncos, I look to put 8 men in the box and make Wilson and his receivers beat me. John Fox is a defensive minded coach and this is what I suspect he’ll do.
This game could come down to how well the Broncos tackle. If they can stop Lynch on the initial hit they’ll go a long way towards beating the Seahawks. Letting him break tackles and get to the second level of the defense is going to put them in a bad situation. The Seahawks will want to grind the clock by running the ball and keep Peyton off the field. If the Broncos are effective at slowing Lynch down, they will put the game on the shoulders of Russell Wilson.
When we look at strength against strength, it looks like the Seahawks will be able to shut down the Broncos running game. Denver ranked 15th in the league in rush offense while the Seahawks ranked 7th in rush defense. If the Seahawks can do that, the game will be placed on….you guessed it, Peyton Manning’s shoulders. So if the running games cancel each other out it’s Wilson versus Manning. The Seahawks cannot let that happen if they want to win because Manning has a number of different weapons at his disposal.
The line for this game is Broncos -3, which seems about right. The reason many people have picked the Broncos is because the popular belief is that the Seahawks didn’t travel well this season. Yes, they were dominant at home, going 8-0. Their defense allowed an average of 13 points per game at home. But did their defense travel, away from the 12th man? Yes, yes it did. The Seahawks gave up a little over 15 points per game on the road, including pitching a shutout at Met Life stadium against the Giants. Their point differential in their 8 road games (including 2 losses) was +7.5. That means their average score differential on the road was winning by over a touchdown. I’d say they travel pretty well. The Seahawks are not the Saints.
So with that, I’m going to go with the Seahawks +3 points. I think Lynch WILL have success running the ball. I think Wilson WILL use his legs to create plays. And I think the Seahawks secondary WILL help slow down the Manning passing attack. I will be rooting for Peyton and the Broncos, simply because I’d like to see an AFC team win, but I think this will ultimately be the Seahawks day. Prediction: Seahawks 24 Broncos 23
