The Dolphins road to the playoffs goes through New England
While everybody knows that the Patriots are tough to beat at home, Miami can definitely make a game of it by committing to a balanced offense and an attacking defense. The very same brand of football that Buffalo used against them last week.
The New York Jets ran the ball an astonishing 52 times on the Patriots last week. It only seems right to see how much more pounding that defense can take.
Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas, who combined for a 25 carry, 120 yard effort last week, will look to wear out the Patriots defense physically and emotionally, just as Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown did for the 2008 Dolphins, unveiling the Wildcat offense in a 38-13 trouncing.
Speaking of the Wildcat, while it may not carry the same element of surprise, the Dolphins might have better personnel for it now. Lamar Miller has elite speed, Daniel Thomas was a high school quarterback and Ryan Tannehill was a college wide receiver.
The Wildcat and the read option can be useful in this game as they allow the offense to get an extra blocker on a running play while also adding an element of misdirection and the potential for a pass play.
An emphasis on the running game can help with time of possession, but the true measure in ball control lies in the amount of offensive plays each team has in any given game, which is why you cannot run the ball to the detriment of getting first downs and scores.
New England has snapped 500 offensive plays in 7 games, which is one shy of the league lead, while Miami has run off an NFL worst 365 after 6 games. New England runs off about 71 plays per game, while Miami averages 61.
With a productive rushing attack the Dolphins will be able to frustrate the Patriots offense, who will not be able to snap the ball as much as they would like to.
A slower pace bodes well for Miami, who has better overall offensive numbers in spite of averaging ten plays less per game, with more yards per play (5.1 to 4.8), third down conversions (38% to 33%) and points per game (22.5 to 21.7) as prime examples, while New England actually runs more (27.9 to 20 in attempts) and better (4.2 to 3.9 in yards per carry) than Miami.
A bigger role for Lamar Miller will help Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered 26 sacks, 7 interceptions and 7 fumbles, four of which were lost. It is hard for a running back to affect a game with ten carries and two pass targets per game, but he would require a lot of attention if he were to get twenty or more touches.
Having Bryant McKinnie at left tackle will be huge for the Dolphins on passing downs as he has given up just one sack in five starts this year and has always been a consisitently good pass blocker.
Look for Miami to dictate the pace of this game and limit negative plays as they steal one in New England and bring hope back to the season. Think game six of the 2013 NBA Finals, Miami fans, do not head for the closest exit yet.