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Breaking down the odds of the Dolphins drafting Pro Bowlers in the NFL Draft

 

By Cyrus (@Cyruslassus on Twitter)

I visited my local fair yesterday and was lured in by the chance of coming away with a big prize for a small price in their carnival games.

I came away feeling scammed and it reminded me of the NFL Draft.

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

I did a numbers analysis of the past five drafts and discovered that 80 Pro Bowlers were selected out of 1272 selections, for a 6.3 percent early success rate.

15 were selected in the 2009 draft, 30 in 2010, 20 in 2011, 11 in 2012 and 4 in 2013.

Obviously, the last two drafts have not had as much time to develop and more Pro Bowlers are surely to sprout, but they have been included as they give a realistic picture of what this Dolphins regime can expect in their win or go home season.

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Dolphins re-sign WR Marlon Moore and LG David Arkin

By Cyrus (@Cyruslassus)

Marlon Moore has re-signed with the Miami Dolphins after appearing in six games for the San Francisco 49ers.

He will assume Ryan Spadola’s spot as the fourth receiver.  Spadola could be re-signed to the practice squad if he clears waivers, but he may opt to return to the Jets as he claimed that he was unaware of Jets interest in him when he opted for the Dolphins practice squad after he was released off of their 53 man roster.

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

Moore, 26, has a strong reputation on special teams and earned two starts at wide receiver as a Dolphin last season, when he contributed six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.  He had similar production as a rookie in 2010. This season he has made one catch for six yards and rushed once for nine yards.

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The not so Crystal Ball: 2nd round mock

The first round went so well, so why not try it again right? I can promise you there will be a ton of trades in the 1st half of this draft. Although this may be a complete waste of time, as promised here is my 2nd round mock.

33 Jacksonville Jonathan Banks, CB Mississippi State
34 San Francisco Jesse Williams, DT Alabama
35 Philadelphia Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
36 Detroit Robert Alford, CB, Southeastern Louisiana
37 Cincinnati Jonathan Cyprien S, Florida International
38 Arizona Ryan Nassib QB, Syracuse
39 New York Jets Matt Barkley QB, Southern California
40 Tennessee Tank Carradine DE, Florida State
41 Buffalo Manti Te’o LB, Notre Dame
42 Oakland Robert Woods WR, Sothern California
43 Tampa Bay Zach Ertz TE, Stanford
44 Carolina Keenan Allen WR, California
45 San Diego Larry Warford OG, Kentucky
46 St. Louis Eddie Lacy RB, Alabama
47 Dallas Menelik Watson OT, Florida State
48 Pittsburgh Arthur Brown LB, Kansas State
49 New York Giants Damontre Moore DE, Texas A&M
50 Chicago Kevin Minter LB, Louisiana State
51 Washington Phillip Thomas S, Syracuse
52 New England Justin Hunter WR, Tennessee
53 Cincinnati Terron Armstead OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
54 Miami Jamar Taylor CB, Boise State
55 Green Bay Quinton Patton WR, Louisiana Tech
56 Seattle Gio Bernard RB, North Carolina
57 Houston Alex Okafor DE, Texas
58 Denver DJ Swearinger S, South Carolina
59 New England Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB, UConn
60 Atlanta Margus Hunt DE, SMU
61 San Francisco Travis Kelce TE, Cincinnati
62 Baltimore Khaseem Green LB, Rutgers

I am not even going to bother doing a 3rd round mock because it will be so far off base. (But just so you know I see the Dolphins targeting OT Brennan Williams & FS David Amerson.) Dolphins pick up excellent value in the 2nd with 1st round talent CB Jamar Taylor. Anyways, I hope you all enjoy! Hope this mock goes better than the one from yesterday. Enjoy tonight.

Follow @Phinfanalyst throughout the night for updates

Grading round 1 of the Dolphins draft.

Well, it is safe to say not many of us ‘experts’ saw this coming. Jeff Ireland is wheeling and dealing like a man possessed. Jeff Ireland reportedly began the trade up process targeting a certain WR many DolFans have been drooling over. However, the Bills refused to trade their pick within their own division. Instead of standing pat, which we fans have become accustomed too, Ireland put his foot further on the gas and traded up to #3 overall. At this point, my twitter feed was absolutely filled with an overreaction of Ireland hate; assuming Mr. Ireland was drafting OT Lane Johnson. The pick of DE/LB Dion Jordan was shocking, and much of the Ireland hate quickly transitioned into praise for the once hated General Manager.

The trade itself was an absolute steal. According to the typical draft value chart the dolphins should have given up their 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 5th. The Dolphins were able to keep their 3rd and 5th round picks. Jeff Ireland definitely ‘won’ the trade. The past weeks leading up to the draft fans were worried the ‘desperate dolphins’ were going to give up that very pick they used to get to number three, for OT Branden Albert. Instead, it is looking like Ireland may steal Albert for a 3rd rounder and was able to get an elite prospect in return. The trade itself warrants an A+.

Now for the player they traded-up for; Dion Jordan. Dion Jordan arrived at Oregon as a 5 star TE prospect despite the fact he missed his entire senior year of football. Jordan was involved in a house fire that year, leaving severe 2nd and 3rd degree burns on over half of his body. Jordan battled through those injuries and became quite the versatile star at Oregon. Jordan was recruited as a TE, but Chip Kelly decided his body type was a better fit at WR. Yes, you read that right, less than two short years ago the player the Dolphins selected at #3 overall to play DE/OLB was a wide receiver. The Wide Receiver experiment ended when Jordan gained about 25 lbs. of muscle filling out his lanky frame. This muscle allowed Kelly to move him back to a crowded TE position. Kelly saw this athlete and new he could not let him waste away on the sideline. This moved Dion Jordan to the position he plays today. Dion Jordan is simply a phenomenal athlete. People compare him to the likes of Aldon Smith, Demarcus Ware, and former Dolphin great Jason Taylor (not bad company). Of course those comparisons are used to explain his pass rushing capabilities, however there is so much more to Jordan. Jordan played both CB and Safety last year in Oregon. So if all goes well the Dolphins drafted an Aldon Smith-type pass rusher with superior coverage ability… Remember how we all got tired of the defenses inability to cover TEs? Yeah, Jeff Ireland was apparently tired of that too. That being said, Jordan is a fairly raw pass rusher. His spin move and ability to blow past the OT to set the edge are both two of his phenomenal skills. Jordan lacks the strength to bull rush strong OTs and can get easily thrown off course. However, his frame will allow him to easily put on some upper-body strength fixing these issues.

Now that we know who Dion Jordan is: How does he fit?
This is interesting. Jordan’s versatility will allow him to play both OLB and DE in a 4-3. Wake obviously holds down one of the DE positions. DE Odrick can be effectively kicked inside to play DT, but the dolphins are already stacked at the DT position. Also, where does last year’s 3rd round pick Vernon play into this? These are questions no one really knows the answer too, but don’t be surprised if one of these defensive linemen is traded in the next few days. Odrick, Vernon, and Soilia could be all dealt within the next few days to free up some cap space. There was not necessarily an imminent need for a DE, which is why this pick was such a shock. Look for Jordan to be a third down pass-rusher/situational player his rookie year and for him to burst onto the scene the 2014 year. The pick itself is a B+. Jordan was not a reach, as he was the 3rd best player on my board. However, they do have immediate needs (CB, OT, OG) and gave up two starters to get one elite prospect at a position that had a fair amount of depth.

Combining the trade grade and the player grade- The Dolphins and Jeff Ireland get a solid A for the first round. It is clear that Jeff Ireland is all-in this year lets hope he stays aggressive and uses his 3 picks tonight to fill-in the Dolphins immediate needs. It will be fun tonight can’t wait to see how it plays out.

@Phinfanalyst

The crystal ball: 1st Round Mock Draft

After about eight long months of intense draft preparations, we have all officially survived mock draft season and the real deal is finally here. As Mel Kiper has stated, “This has not been a comfortable year to do mock drafts.” Here we are less than 24 hours away from Roger Goodell announcing Kansas City is on the clock and there is still debate on who the pick should be. There are simply no ‘locks’ in this draft years draft, but with no ‘locks’ I can assure you there will be plenty of steals.

We here at PhinNation encourage comments, criticisms, and questions regarding our intelligence, or furthermore our sanity at this point in time. Enjoy!

Pick Position               Selection
1 Kansas City  OT     Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
2 Jacksonville  OLB      Dion Jordan, Oregon
3 Oakland       QB      Geno Smith, W.Va
4 Philadelphia  OT        Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
5 Detroit        CB        Dee Milliner, ‘Bama
6 Cleveland     DE        Ziggy Ansah, BYU
7 Arizona       OT        Lane Johnson, Oklahoma
8 Buffalo         QB         Matt Barkely, USC
9 NYJ              FS         Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
10 Tennessee    OG         Chance Warmack, ‘Bama
11 San Diego    OT         DJ Fluker, ‘Bama
12 Miami           WR          Tavon Austin, W.Va
13 NYJ           DE/OLB     Keke Mingo, LSU
14 Carolina         DT         Shariff Floyd, Florida
15 New Orleans OLB       Jarvis Jones, Georgia
16 St. Louis         OG         Jon Cooper, UNC
17   Pittsburgh    DE          Bjoren Werner, FSU
18 Dallas            DT          Star Lotulelei, Utah
19 NYG              TE           Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame
20 Chicago          OT          Menelik Watson, FSU
21 Cincinnati     WR         Cordarrelle Patterson, Tenn.
22 St. Louis         WR         DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
23 Minnesota     WR         Keenan Allen, California
24 Indianapolis    CB         Xavier Rhodes, FSU
25 Minnesota      DT        Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
26 Green Bay       RB         Eddie Lacy, ‘Bama
27 Houston          QB        Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
28 Denver            CB         Dez Trufant, Wash.
29 New England   WR        Justin Hunter, Tenn.
30 Atlanta             CB         DJ Hayden, Houston
31 San Francisco DE         Datone Jones, UCLA
32 Baltimore         LB          Arthur Brown, Kansas St

The Dolphins recent rumblings sending Bess to Cleveland lead to the selection of WR/RB/KR/PR Tavon Austin. Many will consider this a luxury pick, but the combination of Mike Wallace and Tavon Austin will bring an entire new dimension to the Dolphins offense.
Be sure to follow @Phinfanlyst on twitter for further analysis throughout the draft Saturday.

Albert trade talks stalled, as Dolphins aren’t willing to meet contract demands

The worst kept secret in the NFL right now is that the Dolphins would like to complete a trade for Branden Albert before the start of the draft on Thursday.  The Dolphins would like to cross the need for a left tackle off of their list, before entering the 2013 draft.  However, it appears that trade talks between the Chiefs and Dolphins have stalled due to the contract demands of Albert.

Photo Courtesy of Jeffrey Beall via Wikipedia.org

Photo Courtesy of Jeffrey Beall via Wikipedia.org

According to Jason Cole of Yahoo! Sports, the Dolphins are balking at the current contract demands from Albert’s camp.  Albert is said to be asking for upwards of $8-9 million per season, which is too rich for the Dolphins.  Albert was given the franchise tag by the Chiefs, which guarantees him $9.8 million for the 2013 season.  However, if the Dolphins trade a 2nd round pick to the Chiefs, they will want contract certainty beyond the 2013 season.

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PhinNation’s 7 Round Dolphins Mock Draft

With the NFL draft 16 days away and free agency dying down it is time for my first 7-round mock. In order to properly understand the 12th overall pick you must understand how the first 11 picks play-out: The way I see the first 11 picks of the 2013 NFL draft:

1) Kansas City selects OT Luke Joeckel

2) Jacksonville selects DE Dion Jordan

3) Oakland selects DT Sharrif Floyd

4) Philadelphia selects OT Eric Fisher

5) Detroit selects CB Dee Miliner

6) Cleavland selects WR Tavon Austin

7) Arizona selects QB Geno Smith

8) Buffalo selects QB Matt Barkley

9) Jets select WR Cordarrelle Patterson

10) Tennessee selects OT Lane Johnson

11) San Diego selects DT Star Lotulelei

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

1) Xavier Rhodes CB, Florida State

Miami is in prime position to take BPA (best pick available). If the draft plays out this way the only true options are OG Chance Warmack, TE Tyler Eifert, DE Zeke Ansah, and CB Xavier Rhodes.  Now I understand Rhodes will not be the sexy pick for the following reasons; Rhodes is Sean Smith 2.0, Rhodes can’t tackle, Rhodes has durability issues, ect.  Xavier Rhodes is not a can’t miss prospect he does have flaws, but he also has loads of potential. Many scouts criticisms of Rhodes are far overblown.

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Why the dolphins should be afraid of Greg Jennings

As the 2013 Free Agency period has started with a ‘bang’ for the fish, arguably already singing the best LB and WR  available, there is one player still available that they must remain cautious of. However,  several glaring hole remain on the dolphins roster that still need to be address OT, CB, and TE, in that order.  Dustin Keller is rumored to be on his way into Miami, leaving the major holes at OT and CB. The cornerback market is currently a relatively frozen market, facing a surplus of adequate starters, such as; Derek Cox, Sean Smith, Aqib Talib,  Dominque Rogers-Cromartie, etc. Chris Houston inked a deal this morning for a modest 5 million per, perhaps setting the market value and ‘unfreezing’ the market.

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

Photo Courtesy of Dolphins.com

A position already addressed by the Dolphins, WR, is quickly drying up, with the exception of  what many considered two blue-chip players, Wes Welker and Greg Jennings. This is where the storm begins to form. News from the always busy, Adam Schefter is New England is drastically undervaluing Wes Welker. He believes Welker will search other options, and could very well leave. Meanwhile, the market for Greg Jennings isn’t exactly ‘hot.’ Jennings has been connected to only two teams thus far, Minnesota and Green Bay. Do not be shocked if a third team enters the fold later today.

New England has cleared some cap space leading some to believe they would make a run at the newly signed Dolphin’s WR Mike Wallace, which (thankfully) never came to fruition . New England has a history of picking up aging free agent WRs tha are believed to be past their prime, inevitably making the rest of the league look silly.  The stars are aligning for the Patriot’s to replace Wes Welker with Greg Jennings. All the while the Dolphins still have glaring holes at CB. Now this is all just personal observation to this point, I have no ‘insider information’ on this situation. But do not be surprised if the Dolphin fans will be grimacing 2 times a year when Greg Jennings suits up in that dreaded Patriot uniform.

Update 5:14 p.m.

Wes Welker has signed a two year, 12 million dollar deal with the Denver Broncos per Adam Shefter and John Elway.

According to Profootballtalk, Danny Amendola’s agent says slot WRs are, “getting screwed (on the market)…and that there is now a chance to return to the Rams.” Now the Pats are likely going to target Amendola as Welkers replacement, but if they were unwilling to give Welker 6 million what would they give Amendola per year? Amendola is reportedly looking in the 5-6 million per season range.

Greg Jennings market is still eerily quiet… More to come!

As always be sure to follow @Phinfanalyst on twitter for your latest Dolphin offseason news & thoughts.

Bush benched, Tannehill erratic, Defense lifeless in loss to Titans

The Miami Dolphins did not show up on Sunday against the Titans. Quite simply, the Dolphins came out flat and stayed that way throughout the game. Where was the Dolphins dominant rushing defense? Where was the efficient quarterback play? Where was the turnover free football that has helped the Dolphins of late? None of it was present on Sunday. I’ll apologize now, as I’m still on vacation, so this will be an abbreviated recap. But here is what I liked and what I didn’t in the Dolphins 37-3 loss to the Titans.

What I liked

Lamar Miller – I know, I know, he only got playing time because Reggie Bush was benched. However, you can’t help but get a little excited every time this guy touches the football. He ran 3 times for 12 yards and caught 2 balls for 13, so his action was limited. But, you can see the home run potential in this kid.

Brian Hartline – Hartline showed up again catching 8 balls for 79 yards. He didn’t catch a touchdown, but he caught balls in traffic and also showed the ability to get open. He’s proving people wrong, but must have more production in the touchdown department.

Ryan Tannehill’s hustle – On his 3rd interception of the day, Tannehill didn’t give up and tackled the Titans’ defender before he could get into the endzone, in a game that was already a blowout. I’m sure that part of it was frustration, but it was nice to see Tannehill hustling down the field to make a touchdown saving tackle.

Sadly, that’s all I could salvage as far as ‘likes’ goes for Sunday’s game. The Dolphins came out flat and played flat the entire game. I was in attendance and I know that people are down on the South Floirda faithful. However, people were just looking for something to cheer for; But the team didn’t give us ANYTHING to cheer for on Sunday. (cont’d on page 2, click below)

Dolphins Gameplan: Efficient offense and suffocating defense

The Miami Dolphins have a chance to even their record at 3-3 on Sunday, and keep pace (although it’s early) in both the AFC East and Wild Card races.  The Dolphins have played better than most people expected before the year started. They’ve been rushing the ball effectively, getting solid play out of their rookie quarterback, and playing very good defense.

On the Sunday, the Dolphins welcome in the St. Louis Rams who are also surprising people this year.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season, but 0-2 on the road.  The Dolphins hope to get back to the .500 mark before their bye comes next week.  The Dolphins are not taking the Rams lightly and will need to give a solid effort to pick up another win.  Here is a look at the Dolphins gameplan for this week (at least, what we think it should be):

Pressure Sam Bradford

The Rams passing offense ranks 30th in the NFL, averaging just 183 yards per game through the air. Sam Bradford has struggled at times this year, mostly because his offensive line is among the leagues worst. The Rams have allowed 15 sacks, which is tied for 3rd worst in the NFL.  The Rams offensive line is so bad that they are starting Wayne Hunter.  You remember Wayne Hunter, right?  He’s the former Jets right tackle that makes Marc Colombo look like Richmond Webb.  The worst part is that the other Rams linemen aren’t much better.  Cameron Wake, Jared Odrick, and Olivier Vernon should have a field day teeing off on this line.

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